Looking for Trump’s next farrago
The US President seems to flit from one major blow up to another, Edmund Greaves writes, with the next big farrago likely to rear its ugly head for financial markets in the second week of July.
Trump seems to have developed something of a pattern. Not interested in slow burn policy, predictable political calendars or defined long-term goals he ranges from one self-created crisis to the next.
We had the early days with Elon Musk and DOGE (Musk now long gone). Then we had the tariff war. Then big beautiful tax bills. Then actual war in the Middle East.
It’s not terribly predictable for the most part, but it all sort of figures into a madcap constellation of policy pronouncements and whims.
He’s sort of like a roving English king of the 12th Century.
Kings in this era had a capital, Winchester, but largely existed on the road. It was a time when to be seen by your subjects and impose yourself upon them in various ways was the essence of power.
From Cheltenham to Canterbury, Basingstoke to Berwick and everywhere in between, kings would appear with their massive retinues, ready to eat your food and sleep in your bed while you smile and say thank you through gritted teeth.
Trump does all this, especially well highlighted in the recent Nato summit.
We’re living with the unpredictability and chaos – it has become endemic.
The good news though, is in July we have a very clear point in time where the next chaos cycle is due to appear – 8/9 July. On these days, the Trump tariff pause is due to expire.
No doubt, then, we’re set to relive the chaos of early April – unless a big deus ex machina appears to make everyone happy. I wouldn’t bet on it, for now.
What’s coming up in July?
July is looking busier than one might expect, although we have no Bank of England base rate decision.
On 1 July the new Ofgem energy price cap update comes into effect.
As mentioned, on 8 July the U.S. 90-day pause on ‘reciprocal’ tariffs ends; while on 9 July U.S. 50% EU tariffs are set to begin after the delay, alongside a decision on UK steel tariffs.
15 July is St Swithin’s Day. This is the day every year when, according to legend, the weather on the day presages the subsequent 40 days. The poem goes:
“St Swithin’s Day, if it does rain
Full forty days, it will remain
St Swithin’s Day, if it be fair
For forty days, t’will rain no more”
Perhaps apt for Trump-world logic?
The Headlinemoney Awards are on 16 July, the same day as ONS UK monthly inflation figures.
Unfortunately for the hacks and the flacks in attendance, 17 July is ONS UK monthly unemployment and wage figures.
ONS UK monthly retail sales figures fall on 25 July.
And finally, on 30 July we’ve got the EU’s latest growth figures, a U.S. interest rate decision and U.S. first set of GDP data for the second quarter of 2025. A bumper day to end the month!
All the best and wishing you a sun-filled and breezy July from everyone here at Mouthy Money, MRM and Octo Members.