Let’s not underestimate the political earthquake that’s coming
The 7 May local elections are going to be a watershed moment for politics in Britain.
Our Parliamentary system has been a largely two-party one since the 19th century, when traditional Tories, Whigs, Peelites, Radicals and independence factions stalked the corridors of the Palace of Westminster.
Our accustomed Labour/Conservative duopoly only really emerged after the First World War. Over the years since, smaller parties have nipped at the heels of these two political forces – which we can loosely define as liberal reformers and preservationists.
There were the days of the Social Democrat Party (SDP) in the 80s, and the later advent of the Liberal Democrats – which saw the former merge with the remains of what was once the great Liberal Party.
That party was itself dislodged from the ‘top 2’ by Labour, first under Ramsay Macdonald in 1924 (although they like to forget that episode for various reasons), then more emphatically in 1945 under Clement Attlee – an administration that laid much of the groundwork for the modern British state in various ways.
However, on 7 May, we are facing a political earthquake the likes of which our modern system has never seen. Westminster is entirely unprepared for the aftershocks.
If you look at the current polling, then the expectation is that Reform will win somewhere north of 3,000 council seats. The Greens are set to gain around 1,000. For context, both have around 900 currently.
Although there is a practical limit to the consequences of this, the result would confirm to voters once and for all that you don’t have to vote for ‘one or the other’ anymore.
Both parties had major breakout election wins in Runcorn (Sarah Pochin, Reform) and then Gorton & Denton (Greens) which confirmed to the electorate that it was all to play for. They killed the old ‘wasted vote’ myth stone dead.
But what does this do at a national level? The results would be extremely chaotic at a general election thanks to our first-past-the-post voting system.
This is because for one party to really clear up, it has to be polling a good amount above 30% to win convincingly. Currently the five major political parties are polling (according to YouGov):
- Con 19%
- Grn 15%
- Lab 18%
- LD 13%
- Ref 26%
Between tactical voting, split voter camps and other volatile events, such polling figures could make the next election extremely unpredictable in terms of outcome.
And so, it would appear the era of the two-party system is dead, smashed to pieces by an electorate that no longer appears to agree on anything much at all.
More still, we shall see what happens to Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the weeks ahead. A leadership challenge is tricky in the Labour Party given the 20% threshold of MPs and the fact they have to put their names to a challenge publicly.
The party has never, in fact, deposed a sitting Labour Prime Minister. But with the party crashing, this might be enough to inspire a revolt. And the disaster of the local elections could bring events to a head in due course.
We live in interesting times.
What’s in the diary for May 2026?
The upcoming diary events could easily be described as ‘winding down’ a bit ahead of Summer, but unfortunately there’s one set of events early on that could colour the rest of the month.
On 7 May is the Welsh Parliament elections, Scottish Parliament elections and England local elections.
This will be followed on13 May by the King’s Speech at State Opening of Parliament.
The usual ONS data releases of GDP, labour market and inflation fall on 14 May, 19 May and 20 May respectively.
Here’s wishing you all a warm and sunny May, whatever the political weather.