Lack of a clear narrative spells more trouble for Labour in 2026

The Labour Government has to start getting its narrative straight to succeed in 2026, Paul Montague-Smith, senior counsel – public affairs at MRM writes.

It’s always fun – with a sense of apprehension – to look back over the last year and remind yourself what you thought might happen when reading the runes for the year ahead. Particularly in politics, which has become so unpredictable that even those working at the very heart of it are wary to speculate, even privately.

Looking back to my wrap-up piece last year, I think some parts still hold true. The collapse in party loyalty appears to have continued. Labour won the 2024 election with 33.7% of the vote, with the Conservatives securing 23.7%, Reform 14.3% and Liberal Democrats 12.2%.

Since then, Labour and the Conservatives have shed support, with Reform and the Greens being the main winners. Aside from Reform, who have polled around the 30% mark since May, the other national parties are, on an aggregated basis, bunched between around 12% and 18%.

Support for both Labour and the Conservatives is around half of where historically they would expect it to be, which is prompting panic stations for many in those parties.

Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise the main taxes – thought essential to secure its election victory – has continued to come back to bite it, even more so since last year, with the Chancellor having to admit to and own a clear breach of the promise at her last Budget.

I suggested last year that Labour’s success would rest on outperforming the economic forecasts. It’s still not looking good on this front. While the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) upgraded its growth forecast for this year, growth has remained anaemic and forecast growth looks set to stay low by historical standards.

Despite the Government’s stated ambitions, deregulation agenda and big investment plans, growth remains elusive; hindered by increased taxes, costs and other burdens on employers.

I was also sceptical about inflation-busting public sector pay awards placating the unions. Aside from junior doctors, industrial action has significantly decreased (much more than I expected). There are signs, though, that teachers, rail and other public sector works are looking at taking action again over pay and conditions in 2026.

What I didn’t fully appreciate or anticipate was how flaky the Government would be despite a massive working majority of 167, or how poor and inconsistent its communications and narrative would be.

Normally, with the stonking majority Keir Starmer has, you would expect a number of your MPs to rebel on certain issues, but you’d live with that, using the big headroom you have to drive your agenda through the Commons.

The Government, though, has earned a reputation for caving in to pressure: winter fuel payments, benefit reforms, the grooming gangs inquiry and farmers’ inheritance tax being the most prominent. Most of the pressure on some of these was not even from their own backbenches.

While voters quite like the idea of politicians being willing to listen and change their minds, they also like to know that their leaders are in control and are not having to dance to someone else’s tune. Perhaps most damaging for Keir Starmer is that his MPs feel that they have been repeatedly marched up the hill to defend the Government’s position on an issue, only to be left feeling exposed and foolish when the handbrake has been pulled to do a 180.

New Labour under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown was known for the discipline and effectiveness of its political narrative and communications. So far, I’m not sure the same can be said about the current Government. Putting aside the ridiculous and damaging pre-Budget pitch-rolling, even as a keen political observer, I struggle to keep up with the various priorities, missions and milestones that have been announced.

Labour’s manifesto focused on six priorities: economic stability, NHS waiting times, border security, Great British Energy, anti-social behaviour and more teachers. Its ‘Plan for Change’ published six months later also had six priorities: raising living standards, building homes and infrastructure, ending NHS backlogs, putting police back on the street, giving children the best start in life and securing home grown energy.

On top of this the Government has also repeatedly said its central mission is growth. But the Chancellor’s priorities in her last Budget statement were tackling the cost of living, NHS waiting lists and cutting public borrowing and debt.

The lack of a simple, consistent, core narrative makes it more difficult for any government, partly because your MPs, party members and the civil service machine don’t have the clarity they need to be as effective as possible.

How has the Government done on its stated priorities, growth aside? It’s very much a mixed bag to date:

• NHS waiting lists have come down from 7.62 million in July 2024 to 7.4 million as of October 2025.

• The overall number of teachers working in England looks slightly down, but recruitment into teacher training is significantly up.

• There seems no chance of the Government hitting its 1.5m housebuilding target by 2029.

• It’s too early – in the sense that we don’t have data – to say whether the Government is on track to hit its target of 13,000 additional police officers during this parliament.

• The OBR thinks growth in real household disposable income per person will fall from 3% to just 0.25% a year over the parliament.

• Net migration has fallen dramatically and returns of illegal migrants are up, but the number of small boat crossings has also gone up significantly.

• Around 500,000 children are expected to be lifted out of relative poverty through more free school meals and the lifting of the two-child benefit cap.

What should we look out for and expect next year?

The shambolic lead up to the Budget raised questions about whether Keir Starmer and the Chancellor would survive the coming year. The Budget itself, with its red meat for backbench Labour MPs, calmed some nerves. But the fundamental fact of how unpopular the party and its leadership is has not gone away. Nor has Reform’s consistent polling lead.

The OBR Spring Forecast is on 3 March. This won’t measure the Government’s performance against its fiscal mandate, although commentators no doubt will. Being just four months since the last forecast we perhaps shouldn’t expect any dramatic news.

Politically, then, the next big event should be the elections in May. The Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly are both up for re-election, along with 136 local authorities across England. However, because of planned local government reorganisation, 63 of them have been asked if they want to postpone their polls. 26 are currently Labour controlled, 12 Conservative and both parties will be keen to limit the potential damage that Reform, on current polling, seems set to do.

It’s perfectly possible – if not to be expected – that a grim night for Labour will re-ignite the leadership speculation, manoeuvrings and hostile briefings that we saw in the run up to the Budget, to the point that someone could break cover to force a formal challenge. 

If that doesn’t happen, unless something changes for the better during 2026, I have a feeling that it is just a matter of time before Labour MPs – including Cabinet Ministers – are ready to hit the panic button in earnest.