No matter which way you look at it, the UK is starting to appear to be an outlier in the ‘fight’ against inflation.
Both the US and EU it would seem are now seeing inflation come down to earth, as it is supposed to, when their central banks tighten monetary policy. No such luck here.
Instead, while the top-line number has fallen, core inflation is still rising.
It might feel like this issue already dominates discussion in the media, politics and even the dinner table, but it is about to dial up even further as the pain continues.
We’re already seeing the impact of rate expectations hit the housing market again, while swaps and bonds are nearing mini Budget levels even though we supposedly got rid of the morons who created the premium in the first place.
What does this mean in practice? More strikes to push for better pay deals. More employment market manoeuvres, and more rate hikes in short.
The Government for its part has set what now looks frankly like a noose to hang themselves with, in declaring they’ll get inflation down by half by the end of this year. This target is looking fanciful, which is perhaps why they’re back to moronic ideas – this time a price cap.
Inflation – which was a pretty turgid monthly news story when I started out in financial journalism – continues to drive the narrative arc of the entire country at the moment. We’d be lucky for that to end any time soon.
What’s coming up in June
June has an array of on-diary events in play, but the big ones include unemplyoment and wages from ONS on 13 June, Tax Freedom Day on 18 June, ONS inflation on 21 June and the MPC rate decision a day later on 22 June.
There is of course a greater range of stuff to be aware of, so have a read of our detailed list.
All the best wishing you a sunny start to your Summer from all of us at MRM and Mouthy Money.