August – the month when nothing (then everything!) happens?

August has a tendency to produce nothing of note, or world-changing crises.

This month I’m going to look at what those sorts of crises looked like, what caused them and what is coming up that could cause a new ruction.

Such crises include; the ‘Panic of 1857’ – a US banking crisis compounded by the end of the California Gold Rush; the Financial Crisis of 1914, sparked by the onset of the First World War; and most famously, the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – which kicked off in August 2008 (although things were in motion well before this, remember Northern Rock etc).

So the timing of all of these is moot. They didn’t happen because it was August, they happened because of structural financial issues blowing open because of a catalyst.

Here’s the rub though, is August the month when those catalysts are more likely to trigger for market behavioural reasons?

The answer is actually yes. Possibly. 

Research shows that seasonal volatility does increase between July and August – by as much as 18% as measured by the VIX.

So it would appear that volatility does increase in the Summer. Whether that’s because the fund managers are on their sun loungers leaving interns to pick stocks is anyone’s guess.

Is there a catalyst waiting for us this August?

Prediction is a bit of a mug’s game, but as stated there is evidence that volatility increases at this time of year. Is that enough to trigger a crisis? I’d call it unlikely.

But there is some fairly significant stuff happening, both in the UK and abroad, that could trigger – at the very least – some market jitters.

We’ve got a rate decision from the BoE on 7 August. This could come alongside more details of housing market trouble which seems to be growing.

Trade and tariff wars rumble on, as do geopolitical problems in key regions. The US is also due to hit the debt ceiling again (the timing on this is not fixed though).

These are all though ultimately speculative. Go and enjoy your margarita by the pool and try not to overthink it.

Key dates for August 2025

Kicking off the month, the US pause on ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on a country-by-country basis ended on 1 August.

 The BoE UK interest rate decision is on 7 August, while the US and China pause on tariff cuts ends on 12 August.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) wages and employment stats come out on 12 August while on 14 August the EU reveals its latest growth figures. The ONS quarterly estimate of GDP and monthly estimates are on the same day.

On 20 August, the ONS UK monthly inflation figures arrive while on 22 August ONS UK monthly retail sales figures are published.

Finally, on 27 August Ofgem announces an update to the energy price cap for the period 1 Oct-31 Dec while the latest GDP Monthly Estimate for Scotland is announced.

Here’s wishing everyone a relaxed and crisis-free August, from all of us here at Octo Members, MRM and Mouthy Money.