Andy Burnham’s free summer ride is coming to an end

With Parliament back briefly before party conference season, Paul Montague-Smith, senior counsel, public affairs at MRM weighs up the party leaders’ popularity – and the potential for an early general election.

It’s over 16 years since Andy Burnham was last at the despatch box as a Government minister. This week he returns to the crucible of the Commons as Prime Minister, today setting out the stall for his premiership via a business statement, and on Wednesday for his first Prime Minister’s Questions.

He – like others before him – has talked about wanting to pursue a politics that’s more consensual. Like those before him, he’ll no doubt find that, even though it’s what he and much of the country would very much like, it won’t materialise. The nature of our current political system simply doesn’t allow it.

Burnham has had a solid start to his premiership. Most issues that have come up have been handled well. The Government appears to be in control. It has a much clearer narrative that people can understand.

Burnham himself comes across much better than his predecessor, who today announced his stepping down as an MP (quickly described by the Conservatives as his final U-turn). Burnham has so far been accessible, open, self-effacing, good-natured, optimistic and pragmatic. On tricky issues like prisoner release he’s clearly explained the difficult choices the Government faces and how it has worked to find a way forward that, despite not being what anyone wants, is the best (or least worst) possible path in the circumstances.

But he’s had the space to be and do all these things. His free ride over the summer is about to come to an end and the pressures are about to intensify.

Having seen off one Prime Minister, Kemi Badenoch will be hoping to quickly unsettle Burnham and push the Government on the back foot. A year ago, many in the Conservative Party were wondering whether she could be successful as their leader. Her net satisfaction rating amongst party members was +19 and she was fifth place in the rankings.

Robert Jenrick (now with Reform UK) was ranked first with +70. Over the last 12 months Badenoch’s Commons and media appearances became sharper, wittier and more confident. She worked on and developed a public profile for ‘telling it like it is’, which has won over her party.

Today she leads the rankings with a net satisfaction rating of +87. She’s now secure, so much so that in her reshuffle this week she could let go of some big names and give her team a sharper, younger edge without fear of kickback from the party.

She appears to be making inroads with the wider public too. A recent YouGov survey showed 38% of Britons think she is doing well as Conservative leader, up 23 points since last October. 27% said she now looks like a prime minister in waiting, up from a measly 8% last year.

While the House of Commons returns this week, it’s not for long. The annual party conference season kicks off again this month. Reform UK hold their conference this Friday and Saturday. As with the Conservatives, party policy is decided by the leadership and party board rather than members, so it will be a presentational and not decision-making affair.

They are expected to reveal their plans for their first ‘100 days in office’. Labour holds its conference in Liverpool from 27 September, with the Conservatives in Birmingham from 4 October.

For all the parties, especially opposition ones, this is the time they need to make the most of, while they have the national media’s attention to themselves. With Labour, Conservatives and Reform all now polling around 20-23%, this year’s conference season could prove more important than normal. While Andy Burnham ruled out an election on becoming Prime Minister, saying it was the last thing the country wanted or needed, there’s a growing theory that he may go early, perhaps in six months’ time.

Some in the party will be advising him to do so. The logic is that right-leaning voters are more split than even when Keir Starmer won his landslide, with three parties now vying for their votes – Conservative, Reform UK and new insurgent Restore Britain.

Burnham has far higher approval ratings among Liberal Democrat and Green voters than Starmer had. Nigel Farage faces continuing difficulties over his receipt and non-declaration of a £5m donation, with suspension from the House of Commons and a further (properly contested) by-election a distinct possibility.

Another recent YouGov survey showed Farage trailing Burnham by 26 points on who would be better as Prime Minister, with Burnham also having a 12-point lead over Badenoch.

Those advocating for an early election argue that while Reform would likely gain a large number of seats, it probably wouldn’t be enough. Labour could well win with a good-sized majority, and Kemi Badenoch could even lose her seat in the process.

The risks, though, are huge. You don’t know how a snap election will go down with the public. You’re gambling that left-leaning voters will back you and that right-leaning ones won’t vote tactically in large numbers.

The path Burnham took to becoming Prime Minister does show a willingness to gamble if the prize is big enough. Perhaps, now he’s in the job, securing his own mandate on his own manifesto will be judged a risk too far. Time will tell.