All quiet on the Budget front(?)

Andy Burnham is set to take to the dispatch box for his first round of Prime Minister’s Questions on 2 September.

He will do so with the public and the media having little more than a vague idea of what he’s really planning on doing to the economy come the October Autumn Budget.

What a difference a year makes.

Who can forget the feverish speculation of 2025 which led to news reports of people panic-withdrawing pension pots and making other rash financial decisions.

We have had snippets of ideas, though.

Reform to council tax and stamp duty. Changes to income tax personal allowances.

And, er, that’s about it.

Of course, it’s not all in Burnham’s remit specifically. The new Chancellor John Healey will deliver his first Budget. We can guess a little from what might come of it. The defence spending target of 3% is being ditched, for one thing.

And think tanks which orbit the Government and have some sway in policy circles have had their say: The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a left-wing think tank with some influence and connections into the current cabinet, has proposed ditching the National Insurance exemption for workers over state pension age.

It also proposed changes to council tax and stamp duty, replacing it with a percentage annual tax on property values (an effective land tax).

Finally, it has proposed equalising capital gains tax with income tax rates. This is an interesting one with last year’s Budget speculation damage in mind.

HMRC has just reported a record (CGT) haul. All the indications here suggest that last year’s speculation led to a lot of people who own assets disposing of those assets – because of concerns that the rate would rise.

This speculation is ongoing, so we would expect more to keep happening. This is not good for the economy because it means productive capital is being extracted.

It is good that the speculation of 2025 is not being repeated. But although the media storm is much milder (so far, we’ve got two months to go!), there is still damage being done.

September’s dates

Andy Burnham kicks us off with PMQs on 2 September. We’ve got GDP figures on 11 September, labour market on 15 September and inflation on 16 September.

This quick-fire data round is polished off by the latest Bank of England base rate decision on 17 September.

For all the other dates that matter for your diary, check our full monthly rundown.

All the best from everyone here at MRM, Octo Members and Mouthy Money.